LAST MODIFIED: September 25, 2009

• The Setting, Part 1: Dangerous Weather Condition in Southern California

Santa Ana weather conditions bring high winds and low humidity to Southern California. This weather condition occurs mostly from October through February and tremendously increases the fire risk in San Diego's back country.

• The Setting, Part 2: The Role of El Niño and other Wet Seasons

• strong El Niños cause above normal annual rainfalls, causing unusual increase in vegetation
• the 2004/2005 winter was the third-wettest in San Diego in a century (2.5 times normal rainfall of 10.5in) though this was not a strong El Niño
• unusually lush vegetation that died in following years
• two unusually dry seasons followed (1/4 of normal rainfall)
• dying vegetation weakened by freezing cold snap in early 2007
• unusually large amount of fire fuel

• The Setting, Part 3: Saturday, October 20, 2007

Santa Ana weather conditions are predicted for the weekend. Extreme fire danger. Fire officals prepare for the worst. Read newsclip from San Diego Union Tribune.

• San Diego Union Tribune online news clips excerpts (Sunday, Oct 21, 07; 12:45pm)

• Protero brushfire (Harris fire) started 9:30am in rugged mountainous terrain (70 mi east of San Diego)
• burned more than 100 acres in two hours
• fueled by 35 mph Santa Ana winds
• 300 firefighters at the scene (from air and ground); 5 tanker planes, 5 helicopters, 45 engines
• 4 firefighters injured by 2pm in a "blowover"
• by noon, fire crossed to south of 94; destroyed one structure
• fire crossed route 188 shortly after 1 pm
• cause under investigation
• burned more than 500 acres by 12:45pm; threatening homes near Tecate
• wind gusts up to 60 mph
• second brushfire (Witch Creek fire) reported shortly after 12:30pm, a rural community several mi west of Santa Ysabel on state route 78; more than 100 acres burned by 1:40pm on both sides of 78
• residents near Witch Creek ordered to evacuate
• NB: Sun faded behind smoke in La Jolla/UTC area between 1:30-2:00pm

• San Diego Union Tribune online news clips excerpts (Sunday, Oct 21, 07; 4:17pm)

• Harris fire burned more than 2500 acres between Tecate and Harris Ranch Road; injured at least 4 firefighters, 4 civilians, killed one person
• destroyed one structure by noon; 100 home evacuated
• Wild Creek fire burned 3000 acres
• fire burning in swatch untouched by Cedar and Paradise fires in 2003
• north of Cedar fire and south of Paradise fire areas
• air attack on hold because of 60 mph wind gusts and low visibility; some tankers relocated from Ramona to Hemet
• reverse 911 call to 5400 homes in San Diego Country Estates; advisory to prepare for evacuation
• Tecate Port of Entry closed to traffic by 1pm

• San Diego Union Tribune online news clips excerpts (Sunday, Oct 21, 07; 4:25pm)

• many people near Witch Creek and San Diego Country Estates evacuated
• Red Cross shelter at Poway High School by 3:30pm
• residents as far away as Rancho Peñasquitos and Carmel Valley reported the air was thick with smoke and ash was raining from the sky

• San Diego Union Tribune online news clips excerpts (Sunday, Oct 21, 07; 5:22pm)

• Witch Creek fire burned more than 4000 acres, burning out of control
• 1000 more firefighters requested
• fire appeared to head south of Ramona
• fire may have been caused by downed powerlines
• winds died down to 20-30 mph; expected to strengthen overnight
• Lakeside, Poway, Escondido and San Diego could be in path of fire
• fire moved northwest toward Lake Sutherland

• 7/39 news update (Sunday, Oct 21, 07: 11:30pm)

• Ramona evacuated into Poway school; large traffic jam along 78/67
• San Diego Country Estates residents stuck on Wild Cat Canyon road because traffic light stuck on 'red'
• homes burned in northeast of Ramona; some horses burned; 2 killed
• Witch Creek fire two fingers, one burning north of Ramona past airport; one south toward SD Country Estates
• fire burning into San Pasqual valley
• some horses evacuated but many lifestock left behind
• explosion heard in Santa Ysabel chicken farm
• wind not letting up
• Harris fire burning toward Jamul
• court closed tomorrow
• only selected school closures; SD Unified School District in session

• 7/39 list of things to take along on evacuation

• important papers: birth certificates; driver's licenses; marriage certificate; insurance policies; water/electricity/phone bills that show name and address
• medication
• radio (battery-powered), flashlight, cell phone + charger
• irreplaceable items: photos, arts, computer disks with vital data; leave computer, monitor behind
• bedding (pillow/blanket/air mattress); toiletry items

• 7/39 news update (Monday, Oct 22, 07: 08:30am)

• fire burned trough San Pasqual valley
• Wild Animal Park spared; some threatened species evacuated
• homes in Escondido south of Ofila winery and San Marcos threatened
• most of Ramona and SD Country Estates spared
• homes in Rancho Bernardo burned
• new fires in Descanso and McCoy toward the east
• NB: UCSD announced closure for the day at 7:30am
• I-15 closed between 56 and 78
• difference to 2003 Cedar fire is that winds don't die down

• 7/39 news update (Monday, Oct 22, 07: 12:00pm)

• fire jumped I-15
• area between I-5/I-15/56 and 78 evacuated
• homes in Escondido burned
• some areas in Poway threatened
• many houses in Rancho Bernardo burned
• Del Mar Fairgrounds no longer takes animals
• Mira Mesa high school shelter (earlier moved from Poway) full
• Qualcomm stadium has space but doesn't take large animals
• military on stand-by for help
• NB: air in La Jolla relatively clear

• 7/39 news update (Monday, Oct 22, 07: 3:00pm)

• 8 fires burning in SD county
• San Pasqual valley still burning
• San Marcos spared
• Romana fire flared up; Witch Creek fire started by exploded transformer
• parts of Scripps Ranch evacuated north of MCS; adding up to a total of 250,000; this is five times as many as in the 2003 Cedar Fire
• I-5 packed; I-15 closed between 56 and 78
• at least 1-4 homes burned in Rancho Santa Fe
• estimated burn area in county exceeds 100,000 acres
• governor at news conference in SD
• Harris fire jumped Otay Lakes Road; eastern parts of Chula Vista on voluntary evacuation

• 7/39 news update (Monday, Oct 22, 07: 6:30pm)

• Rice fire near Fallbrook major concern
• people evacuated into Camp Pendleton
• fire resources from out-of-state arrived in SoCal
• fires in Rancho Bernardo, Ramona still burning; some Ramona neighborhoods threatened
• some winds slightly lower
• many shelters full
• backfires started earlier in the day but wind directions changed
• evacuation for Crest though no fire nearby
• mandatory evacuation north of Sorento Valley Road all way to ocean
• "Home Depot has no more fire masks"; some reports of price gouging
• mandatory evacuation for Bella Lago in Chula Vista (evacuate to Chula Vista High)
• Witch Creek fire: 40,000 acres burned; 600 houses burned
• Harris fire: more than 20,000 acres burned; threatens more communities; firefighting cost exceed $1.3 Mio
• McCoy Fire: Cleveland National Forest; Boulder Creek; 400 acres; 1 house burned; 30 firefighters; 5 engines

• San Diego Union Tribune online news clips excerpts (Monday, Oct 22, 07; 7:00pm)

• 4 main fires as of 3:30pm
• Harris Fire: more than 20,000 acres; caused unknown; 1000 people evacuated between Barrett Junction and Otay Lakes Road; 4+ homes burned; 16 civilians/4 firefighters injured; 1 civilian dead; 400 firefighters; 55 engines; 6 helos; 5 air tankers (shared with Witch Creek fire)
• Witch Creek Fire: more than 14,000 acres; 10,000 evacuated from Ramona, San Pasqual, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Peñasquitos to Rancho Santa Fe; 6 homes burned in Escondido, 60 in Rancho Bernardo; 1 firefighter injured; 369 firefighters; 28 engines; 6 helos, 5 air tankers (shared with Harris Fire)
• Rice Canyon Fire/Fallbrook: 750+ acres; 6-10 structures burned; 1 firefigher injured; 30 firefighters; 5 engines
• NB: some of these numbers have obviously not been updated
• Coronado Hills Fire/San Marcos: started 1:50am 10/22; full containment by 3pm; 300 acres burned; 7300 people evacuated all the way the San Elijo; 40 firefighters; 25 engines;

• channels 7/39 and 10 news updates (Monday, Oct 22, 07; 11:00pm/Tuesday 1:00am)

• heavy fire in Rancho Santa Fe
• Witch Creek fire now up to 200,000 acres
• voluntary evacuation south of 56
• Harris fire wrapped around Mt. San Miguel; travels up mountain; mountain top full of cell phone and TV towers; if tower goes, 7/39 will go off air; cable reception still ok
• some East Chula Vista communities evacuated; Bella Lago with multi-million dollar homes; Proctor Valley; evacuation imminent for Eastlake, Spring Valley, Bonita
• Fiesta Island opens as evacuation site for folks with large animals (lifestock)
• hotels are completely full
• some people are missing

• channels 7/39 and 10 news updates (Tuesday, Oct 23, 07; 08:00am)

• Witch Fire may slow down but burned several homes in Rancho Santa Fe
• Harris fire did not burn up top of Mt. San Miguel; spread to Mt. Helix
• Lemon Grove on evacuation watch; winds still strong; fire very active and major concern
• winds may slow down; first good news but warning to not let guard down; people may be mislead by seeing blue sky after spending Sunday/Monday in smoke
• main power lines damaged; more than 25,000 customers lost power; major asks city to conserve power
• high wind advisory until 2pm today; red flag warning until 3pm tomorrow
• significant fire in Valley Center, started around 3:00am; evacuation along 76 (incl. Vista); some evacuation into Rincon Casino

• channels 7/39 and 10 news update (Tuesday, Oct 23, 07; noon)

• update on Chula Vista fighting effort: 4 helicopters dropped 12 times and successfully cooled down head of fire; Harris fire now pushing east by onshore winds
• still off-shore winds in north
• houses burning in Escondido (fire back in area that already burned down) and Del Dios areas north of Lake Hodges; 100 ft flames; firefighters appear overwhelmed
• some houses are down within only 2 min
• first complaints of residents about absent firefighters; one owner fought for his house for 3h; one fought for 90min before fire crew showed up
• many homes in Rancho del Rio lost
• mandatory evacuation lifted for Scripps Ranch, Del Mar
• evacuation notice for Julian, Harmony Grove, Fairbanks Ranch, 4S Ranch, Crosby Estates
• confusion and frustration about Poway evacuations as I-15 is open

• 7/39 news update (Tuesday, Oct 23, 07; 2:00pm)

• some Poway residents returned to check on house; find fire approaching and are angry that no firefighters have been nearby for long time to save neighborhoods; civilians take it into their own hands to fight fire to save their house; a large propane tank on one of properties makes firefighting dangerous
• firefighters appear shortly after; they say that other houses nearby were deemed more likely to be saved because precautionary measures had been taken; firefighters therefore concentrated on those houses
• too much help and supplies for Qualcomm shelter but not enough for Granite Hills highschool shelter; need supplies for large pets and horses
• mandatory evacuation in Rancho San Diego to Qualcomm; mention that reverse 911 system works extremely well; on channel 10, it was discussed that reverse 911 does not work in all cases: not all customers who have combined internet/phone service get reverse 911; clarification that Time Warner works but Vonage doesn't
• madatory evacuations also for La Jolla indian reservation and Pala/Pauma
• now over 500,000 people evacuated
• Ramona has no water supply until Wednesday
• Witch Creek fire could burn into Olivenhain
• schools still closed; some arts events cancelled; big convention still going on
• Navy firefighting effort: improvement since 2003 fire! firefighting crews and military are now using same communication system/channels etc. so coordination much better
• Rice Canyon fire not expected to be contained until Nov. 1; threatens areas into Oceanside

• 7/39 news update (Tuesday, Oct 23, 07; 3:00pm)

• reverse 911 call to Rancho San Diego was false alarm (fault in 911 system)
• Witch Creek fire now burned 165,000 acres
• winds and humidity eased slightly in many areas
• Pala/Pauma valley filled with smoke along 76; air stagnant; evacuation meets resistance
• Harrah's casino may be next to evacuate
• mandatory evacuation from Ramona to Lakeside along 67; too many accidents and fire danger
• mandatory evacuation for North Jamul; access Qualcomm through 94
• East Chula Vista evacuation lifted

• 7/39 news update (Tuesday, Oct 23, 07; 7:00pm)

• only small area in Rancho San Diego evacuated
• a total of 900,000 people have been evacuated due to fires in SoCal
• Lake Arrowhead fire most serious one outside of San Diego, with hundreds of homes lost
• latest numbers: Harris fire burned 70,000 acres, destroyed 200 buildings; Witch Creek fire burned 200,000 acres, destroyed 650 buildings; Rice fire burned 6100 acres; Palomar/Valley Center fire burned 23,000 acres (from 3,000 this morning); 5 fatalities
• Associate Press summary for Southern California: 12 fires burning; 1300 homes lost; 400,000 acres burned; 910,000 people evacuated; 8000 firefighters

• Appendix 1: Fuel in Southern California

• chaparral: perennial evergreen brush
• one of most flammable plant groups
• can grow shoots from unburnt subsurface roots
• some need heat or smoke to germinate
• eucalyptus in urban areas: native to Australia; aromatic oils increase fire risk; fast growing; low-quality brittle wood

• Appendix 2: Fire Fighting or Suppression? The Case California

a comparison of fires in California and Baja California also reveals that fire fighting practices do not decrease the amount of area burnt

• California fights fires at any cost while Baja lets them burn
• in Baja half the area burnt in twice as many fires; i.e. CA fires much bigger
• only 20% of fires in Baja burn after Sep 1 (start of Santa Ana season), while 72% burn in California; i.e. Santa Ana fire risk increased in CA!


• despite fire fighting efforts, number of fires has remained over decades
• size of burnt area declined dramatically; does this increase future fire risk?
• should forests be thinned (increase of shrub growth -> increased fire risk!?)
• should fires be allowed to burn? (could go out of control)
• are prescribed fires the solution? (number is increasing, so is cost)
• WHO PAYS FOR THIS?

• Appendix 3: How Can we Avoid this to Happen Again?

Good question! The problem is very complex and there is probably no perfect solution. If fact, some suggests are impossible to realize, and perhaps some shouldn't! They include:

suggestions include:
• ice plants everywhere, but not native to San Diego; does not support wildlife; needs a lot of irrigation
• change air support flying rules, but puts firefighters in harm's way!
• better communication between City and County emergency crews
• change California fire fighter exchange rule, but would we suggest the same if the Cedar Fire had started before the Grand Prix Fire in St. Bernardino?
• better house protection, but no guarantee! some houses were lost despite all the right precautions
• buy more helicopters, but who pays for this? The current sole San Diego fire fighting helicopter costs $200,000/month; the purchase of one would involve $1.5Mio)
• stop urban sprawl?
• more prescribed fires, but who pays for this? Some fires burn out of control, e.g. Los Alamos 2000! And even some in San Diego county.